MPP 603
BOB ESCUDERO
OFFICE: AC 222D
PH: (310) 506-4378

APPLIED RESEARCH METHODS IN PUBLIC POLICY

Students have unnecessary difficulty learning...because textbooks generally do not have enough good examples of real-world applications.  
                                        ---Gary Becker (Business Week, 21 October 1996)

Course Description

This course emphasizes the application of research methodology and statistical techniques for evaluating the performance of public policy decisions. Students should be able to understand and apply basic research design methodology and be able to interpret the results. The course provides both a theoretical foundation and practical applications of these methods, including variance, multiple regression and correlation analysis, cost-benefit analysis, survey sampling, and other tools of evaluation. Included is an introduction to the rich sources of data available on the Ainformation superhighway.@

Objectives

1. Students will be engaged in Aheadline@ situations to motivate analyses. Examples that incorporate events reported in the newspapers, magazines, and journals that public administrators, economists, business executives, and professors read will be used.

2. Students will apply the tools of statistics and econometrics to actual situations related to policy-specific topics.

3. Students will learn to use both basic and more advanced quantitative methods, which will be made Areal@ with reference to the popular press.

4. Students will use short case studies to demonstrate a specific form of analysis while giving them an opportunity to observe how concepts and theories are used to examine a diverse array of issues.

5. Students will be exposed to the most basic calculations by using data from the press. Small data sets enable hand calculations to verify what a computer program does.

6. Students will learn how to use various statistical software packages to analyze data sets that they have collected.

7. Students will use the Web in search of information (major news and data sources) to be used throughout the semester for data analysis.

Required Textbooks

    Hildebrand, David H. and Ott, R. Lyman. Statistical Thinking for Managers, 4th edition. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press, 1998.

    Studenmund, A.H. Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide, 3rd edition. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley Longman, Inc., 1997.

    Wyrick, Thomas L. The Economist=s Handbook: A Research and Writing Guide. St. Paul, MN: West Publishing Company, 1994.

Other Readings and Handouts

    Babbie, Earl. The Practice of Social Research, 8th edition. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Publishing Co., 1998.

    Bell, David E. and Schleifer, Arthur. Decision Making Under Uncertainty. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press, 1995.

    Doornik, Jurgen A. and Hendry, David F. PcGive Student 8.0: An Interactive Econometric Modelling System. Belmont, CA: Duxbury Press, 1994.

    Doti, James L. and Adibi, Esmael. The Practice of Econometrics with EViews. Irvine, CA: Quantitative Micro Software, 1998.

    JMP Statistical Discovery Software, Version 3.2. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc., 1998.

    Kennedy, Peter. A Guide to Econometrics, 4th edition. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1998.

    Meier, Gerald M. The International Environment of Business. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1998.

    Stokey, Edith and Zeckhauser, Richard. A Primer for Policy Analysis. New York, NY: W.W. Norton and Company, 1978.

    Tufte, Edward R. Data Analysis for Politics and Policy. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press, 1974.

    Tufte, Edward R. Political Control of the Economy. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press, 1993.

    Tufte, Edward R. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press, 1987.

    Tufte, Edward R. Visual Explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press, 1997.

    Tufte, Edward R. Visual and Statistical Thinking: Displays of Evidence for Decision Making. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press, 1997.

    Van Evera, Stephen. Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1997.

    Weimer, David L. and Vining, Aidan R. Policy Analysis: Concepts and Practice, 2nd edition. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1992.

Exams

There will be one mid-term exam (300 points) and one final exam (500 points). If your grade on the final exam is higher than your grade on the mid-term exam, then the final exam will be worth 800 points.

Group Project

Students are required to perform a policy analysis on a specified topic, such as crime, health care, education, immigration, social security, etc. Separate handouts will be distributed throughout the semester detailing the project, which is worth 200 points.

Attendance

Attendance at every class meeting is expected of each student. Any exceptions to this rule must be made by the instructor, who is responsible for keeping attendance records.

Grading

The quality of achievement in the course is measured as follows: AA@ indicates superior work; AB@ indicates average or satisfactory, and AC@ is the lowest passing grade. A core course must be repeated when a grade lower than AC-@ is earned.

GRADES PERCENTAGES COMMENTS
A 94-100% (indicates outstanding achievement)
A- 90-93%  
B+ 87-89%  
B 84-86% (indicates average or satisfactory achievement)
B- 80-83%  
C+ 77-79%  
C 74-76% (indicates below average performance)
C- 70-73%  

Course Outline

I. Introduction to Policy Analysis
II. Research Design Methodology
III. Statistical Techniques
IV. Multiple Regression and Correlation Analysis
V. Applied Econometrics
VI. Cost-Benefit Analysis

Weekly Schedule

Week 1 - Introduction to the Course
                Objectives for the Course
                Expectations for the Course
                Introduction to Policy Analysis (Policy Analysis: A Handbook for Practice)
                Assign Project Groups

Week 2 - Data (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 1)
                Summarizing Data About One Variable (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 2)
                Data Sources (Wyrick: Appendices 2-4, 6 & 10)
                Locating and Transforming Data (Wyrick: Chapters 1-2)
                The Logic of Sampling (Handout)
                Some Alternative Sampling Methods (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 16)

Week 3 - Locating Published Research (Wyrick: Chapter 3)
                Writing Methods and Practices (Wyrick: Chapter 4)
                Writing a Short Descriptive Report (Wyrick: Chapter 5)

Week 4 - Research Design (Handout)
                Guidelines for Asking Questions (Handout)
                Questionnaire Construction (Handout)
                Unobtrusive Research (Handout)
                Evaluation Research (Handout)

Week 5 - Statistical Techniques
                A First Look at Probability (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 3)
                Random Variables and Probability Distributions (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 4)
                Some Special Probability Distributions (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 5)

Week 6 - Statistical Techniques
                Random Sampling and Sampling Distributions (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 6)
                Estimation (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 7)
                Hypothesis Testing (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 8)
               Take Home Mid-Term Exam (covering weeks 1-6)

Week 7 - Linear Regression and Correlation Methods (Hildebrand & Ott: Chapter 12)
                An Overview of Regression Analysis (Studenmund: Chapter 1)
                Ordinary Least Squares (Studenmund: Chapter 2)

Week 8 - Multiple Regression and Correlation Analysis
                Learning to Use Regression Analysis (Studenmund: Chapter 3)
                The Classical Model (Studenmund: Chapter 4)
                Basic Statistics and Hypothesis Testing (Studenmund: Chapter 5)
                Take Home Mid-Term Exam Due

Week 9 - Applied Econometrics, Part I
                Specification and a Violation of an Assumption (Studenmund: Chapters 6-8)

Week 10 - Applied Econometrics, Part II
                  More Violations of Assumptions (Studenmund: Chapters 9-11)

Week 11 - Cost-Benefit Analysis (Handout)

Week 12 - Cost-Benefit Analysis (Handout)

Week 13 - No Class Work on Group Project

Week 14 - Final Exam

Week 15 - Summaries of Group Projects (Wyrick, Appendix 18)